New publication in the Journal Infrastructure Asset Management
Prof. Dr. Bryan T. Adey's Chair of Infrastructure Management is pleased to announce that the article “Empirical comparison of weighted and no-weighted Reference Class Forecasting” by PhD candidate David Zani, has been published in the journal Infrastructure Asset Management.
In this paper, PhD candidate David Zani investigates the potential for improved accuracy of a cost-estimating method called weighted reference class forecasting (WRCF) with respect to the traditional reference class forecasting (RCF) method. WRCF is a modification of the RCF method, which uses historical project cost data to produce project cost estimate uplifts. WRCF uses work package-level cost deviations to overcome a limitation of RCF: the unavailability of reference data. As WRCF has not been validated, which raises concerns about the method’s reliability, David Zani uses real project data from a utility company in simulated project portfolios and cross-validation to assess the validity of WRCF. Results indicate that WRCF produces more conservative cost estimates than the traditional RCF. In addition, WRCF cost estimates have a higher level of certainty than expected, potentially leading to inflated cost estimates beyond what is intended.
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